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Autumn arrives with buyers looking again
After the summer we have had, September feels a little like everybody has finally come back into the room.
The holidays are largely behind us, the extraordinary spells of hot weather have passed, the football is no longer competing for quite so much attention and, perhaps most importantly for the property market, people are returning to plans that were put to one side during July and August.
The latest Rightmove House Price Index offers some evidence of that change in mood.
The average asking price of a newly listed home rose by 0.7% in September to £367,440. It is the first monthly rise since May and slightly stronger than the average September increase over the last decade.
After three consecutive months of falling asking prices, that is welcome news.
We should keep it in perspective. Prices remain below where they were last year, buyers have plenty of choice and mortgages have become a little more expensive again.
But the market feels more purposeful than it did in midsummer.
The South West is steadier than the headlines might suggest
National property figures can sometimes make our local market sound more dramatic than it really is.
Rightmove’s latest regional figures show average South West asking prices virtually unchanged during September and 1.1% below a year ago. The average time required to find a buyer is around 72 days.
That is hardly boom territory, but nor is it a market falling off a cliff.
The latest official ONS figures tell a similar story closer to home. The average property price across Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole was approximately £310,000 in July, 1.9% below a year earlier.
Look a little closer and it becomes more interesting: semi-detached values were broadly unchanged over the year, while flats and maisonettes recorded a larger fall.
That is important because there is no such thing as “the Christchurch property market”.
A bungalow in Highcliffe does not behave like an apartment in central Bournemouth. A family home near Twynham has a different audience from a waterside property in Mudeford. A cottage in Bransgore competes with an entirely different group of homes from something off Southbourne Grove.
The closer you get to an individual property, the less useful the national average becomes.
Lifestyle has not gone out of fashion
One thing this year has reinforced for me is how durable the reasons for moving to this area really are.
People still want to walk to Avon Beach.
They still want the harbour and Mudeford Quay, the cafés around Southbourne Grove, the quieter atmosphere of Highcliffe and the village feel of Bransgore.
Families still want good schools and gardens. Downsizers still want to remain close to friends, shops and the coast without maintaining a large house. People relocating from elsewhere still look at this part of the country and think the quality of life compares rather well.
Those motivations are much more durable than a month’s house-price figure.
What has changed is what buyers are prepared to pay without asking questions.
And that is perfectly reasonable.
September buyers are serious buyers
Summer can produce plenty of browsing.
Autumn tends to produce more decisions.
We are now approaching the part of the year when buyers who would genuinely like to move before Christmas or early in the New Year know they need to get on with it.
That does not make them reckless. Quite the opposite.
Rightmove reports that buyer demand nationally remains below last year’s level and that the number of homes for sale is at a twelve-year high for this time of year.
So sellers have competition.
A buyer considering Highcliffe may have several similar bungalows to inspect. Someone looking in Christchurch may compare Mudeford with West Christchurch or Stanpit. A Southbourne buyer may widen the search towards Tuckton. A family considering Bransgore may also have half an eye on neighbouring villages.
The home that gets the viewing is usually the one where the combination of location, presentation and price makes sense.
Getting the first price right still matters
Rightmove says 74% of homes that have successfully sold this year did not require a later asking-price reduction.
I think that is one of the most useful statistics they publish.
It does not say sellers should be cheap.
It says they should be credible.
A sensible launch price allows a property to make the most of its first few weeks on the market. It encourages buyers to view rather than bookmark it and wait. It can create competition rather than suspicion.
The old approach of “we can always reduce it later” is much less effective when buyers have plenty of alternatives.
If you eventually arrive at the right price after three months, you have arrived with a three-month-old listing.
That isn’t the same thing.
Mortgage rates are the main reason for some caution
The less helpful news is that Rightmove’s average two-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 5.29%, from 5.09% last month.
That puts pressure on affordability, particularly for first-time buyers and families moving to a larger home.
However, mortgage products remain widely available and lenders are competing for business. Buyers have also had several years to become accustomed to rates being above the extraordinarily low levels seen previously.
Most people we speak to are no longer waiting for a return to one or two per cent mortgages.
They are asking a more practical question: can we comfortably afford the home we want at today’s cost?
When the answer is yes, people are moving.
Moving upwards can still work surprisingly well
A slightly softer market can also have an advantage that is easy to overlook.
If you are selling a smaller home to buy a larger one, you are not experiencing the market on only one side of the transaction.
If values have adjusted, the more expensive property you want to buy may also have adjusted — potentially by a greater amount in pounds.
A family accepting slightly less for a three-bedroom house but paying materially less for the four-bedroom house they want can end up financially better placed overall.
The important figure is the gap.
This is why we always encourage movers to look at the whole transaction rather than fixating only on the number attached to their existing home.
The rental market remains quietly important
The ONS puts the average private rent across Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole at £1,398 per month in August, up 2.8% over the year.
Demand for good rental homes remains evident, particularly in convenient locations close to schools, transport and the coast.
Landlords are now several months into the Renters’ Rights Act regime. It has undoubtedly added responsibilities and made professional management more important, but it has not changed the basic reality that people need good-quality rented homes.
For responsible landlords who take a long-term view, there remains a market.
A little perspective helps
The latest RICS survey also gives some grounds for encouragement. Buyer enquiries and agreed sales nationally have both been improving from the weaker levels seen earlier in the year, while expectations for sales over the next twelve months have become modestly positive.
That sounds about right to me.
I don’t think anybody should pretend the market is easy. Buyers are selective, mortgage costs matter and sellers face more competition.
But we have seen difficult summers before. We have seen uncertain economies before. We have seen buyers pause and then return once normal life resumes.
Property markets have a habit of carrying on because life carries on.
Across Christchurch, Southbourne, Highcliffe and Bransgore, the things that make people want to live here remain exactly where they were in January: the coast, the New Forest, good schools, established communities and an enviable quality of life.
September’s figures are not a reason to become carried away.
They are, perhaps, a reason to feel a little more encouraged.
If you are considering a move this autumn, good preparation and sensible pricing still matter enormously. But there are buyers looking, transactions being agreed and opportunities on both sides of the market.
Sometimes that is all the reassurance we need.
Planning an autumn move?
If you’d like a clear, evidence-based view of value and a marketing plan tuned to today’s conditions, we’ll help you set the right strategy – street-by-street pricing, best-in-class presentation, and proactive buyer matching – so you can move forward with confidence. Please feel free to contact any of our offices, either for an informal chat about the market and how we can help, or to book a market appraisal.
Why not try our Instant online valuation tool to get started?
By Jason Hallowes, Director, Slades Estate Agents
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